Theresa Schleicher – Customs tactics, trade, retail & future opportunities

A guest article by Theresa Schleicher, expert for trade, retail & economic thought leader.

An outlook on the positive effects of customs tactics on the European economy.

The future can also look different – in fact, it is often more boring and positive than people imagine. I apologise for the initial disillusionment – I know that negative dystopias and pessimism are very popular with many people. But if the past has taught us anything, it’s this. Up to a certain point, our society tips over and then recovers.

We are now in Donald Trump’s second term and are experiencing a renaissance of protectionism that would make Adam Smith blush. With the ‘Reciprocal Tariffs’, Trump has unleashed a trade strategy that raises more questions than it answers. The announced – and then postponed – US tariffs on European goods are not a benefit for his own country, but a demonstration of political power. One that was postponed again after a short time in order to maintain the drama. Officially to enable negotiations, but perhaps more because the bond market rebelled and the yields on 30-year US government bonds shot up or because countries joined forces to fight back.

And Europe: When the loud ones fight …”

The customs developments are considered particularly explosive for Europe and especially for Germany. The Federal Ministry of Economics is warning of an ‘exceptionally high’ level of uncertainty for German exporters. The economic institutes have lowered their growth forecast for 2025, with the prospect of a possible recession.

But despite this, I talk to old politicians and investors on this afternoon, which moves me to write and the days that follow, about historic opportunities that also change the picture. Because despite all the back and forth of the great demonstrations of power in the West and the East, what companies and investors favour in the face of impassability is reliability – in production and cooperation.

And Europe? It’s a bit like in school when the loud ones fight…

Stability shows strength. Even if this is sometimes said as a joke in ironic conversations in the government district. Just a few opportunities for the future that we can’t see enough of today: Reliability makes for win-win cooperation. Let’s look at it economically. Companies and investors love stability. While tariffs are washing over Asia and parts of America like tidal waves, the eurozone offers security and reliable regulation.

Frankfurt could benefit as a financial centre, as could European industrial bonds, not to mention extremely lucrative growth opportunities in the industries (from defence to infrastructure) that we must – and will – expand throughout Europe. The debate on AI and green technologies could well take a turn as a result of America’s zigzag course in trade policy. If Washington shuts itself off, Germany could become a hub for technological independence in Europe. The foundations of AI were laid here, the knowledge and the brains are there.

Tariffs will disappear, real cooperation with markets will remain.

With Washington on a solo path and Beijing under constant scrutiny, there is a need to act even more with other emerging countries and nations and create closed, long-term collaborations in order to forge new alliances with the ASEAN states, Canada or Brazil, which are considered more secure and stable on the basis of global shifts.

Incidentally, this does not mean that now is the time for solid accountants…

For some people, this may sound like a nice idea. After all, some things need to be changed. Energy policy, for example, does not need any more round-table compromise discussions, but rather a route towards more electricity from the sun, wind and clever minds – and faster, cheaper and more storable.

SMEs, often romanticised but chronically overburdened, would simply need fewer forms, digital credit and an internet connection that is no slower than the post. And the economic area could really shine if we not only let Berlin and Munich grow, but also put the economic pearls between Weserbergland and Oberpfalz back in the spotlight: with 5G, fibre optics and public transport that doesn’t work part-time like a civil servant.

And internationally? A key lever in economic renewal will lie in the consistent further development of the European single market, not as a historical model of success, but as a dynamic project for the future.

About Theresa Schleicher

Theresa Schleicher is an economic thought leader, advisor to the Federal Ministry of Economics and internationally renowned trade futurologist. She researches the major developments in geopolitical economic issues, the areas of tension between sustainability and technological innovations and regularly provides impetus for the future in political circles and in commercial enterprises in Europe.

Theresa Schleicher advises DAX companies, including Porsche AG, on their future development and publishes her findings in annual studies in co-operation with The Future Project, the Zukunftsinstitut, in sparring with Asian research units, the WWF and the Federal Ministry of Economics. In her current 12-month research programme, she explores the question of how new innovative strength will emerge in Europe and outlines international trends and developments for the economy.

Book retail expert Theresa Schleicher for presentations at PREMIUM SPEAKERS. Call us or write directly to theresa.schleicher@premium-speakers.com.